Models, Simulations and Assessments for Public Health Prevention, Control, Vaccine, and Antivirus Strategies for Taiwan's Most Serious Epidemics

Project: National Science and Technology CouncilNational Science and Technology Council Academic Grants

Project Details


During this three-year investigation we will use a combination of questionnaire survey results and detailed interviews with indigenous experts to gather epidemiological data for use with complex network theory, agent-based modeling and network-oriented simulation approach, and traditional epidemiological models to construct a general-purpose daily contact social network. The data and network will be used to develop five epidemic simulation model suites for Taiwan’s five most serious infection epidemic types: close-distance infectious diseases (e.g., SARS), infectious diseases transmitted via air droplets (e.g., novel forms of influenza), long-term chronic seizure infectious diseases (e.g., tuberculosis), sexually transmitted diseases (e.g., HIV), and intermediary vector diseases (e.g., dengue fever). In year three, our task will be to assess the efficacies of public health strategies for prevention and control, vaccine development, and antivirus efforts, as well as their second-order social emergence. Specific secondary research topics will include: 1) developing interpersonal social networks and analyzing network topological properties; 2) developing a simulation model for close-distance infectious diseases based on daily social contact networks and using it to assess the efficacies of various public health policies; 3) using the social mirror identity concept to develop a simulation model for infectious diseases transmitted via air droplets and using it to determine the best vaccine and antivirus strategies in response to a novel form of influenza; 4) using a simulation model for long-term chronic infectious diseases to determine the best Directly Observed therapy (D.O.T.) prevention and intervention strategies for achieving the goal of the Taiwan Center for Disease Control to eradicate tuberculosis; 5) using a simulation model for sexually transmitted diseases to explore social behaviors that affect HIV transmission among Taiwanese homosexuals and intravenous drug users; and 6) using a simulation model for vector infectious diseases to analyze the impacts of various public sanitation policies on efforts to control disease in southern Taiwan.

Project IDs

Project ID:PB9709-3563
External Project ID:NSC97-2221-E182-046
Effective start/end date01/08/0831/07/09


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