人口成長與經濟發展

人口成長與經濟發展的關係是人口學的一個基本課題，也是一個爭論不休的問題。本文引用歷史學者、人口學者、經濟學者、以及社會學者所收集的驗證材料，輔以台灣地區與中國大陸的人口資料，檢討近代的人口成長與人口轉型，從而澄清人口成長與經濟發展的關係。本文指出，人口成長與經濟發間並無一成不變的公式，有利或有害而視當時當地的社會經濟條件而定。我們傾向於接受馬克斯之主張人口「問題」為生產關係的問題，而不是生產力的問題，只是我們認為這個問題主要是發生在實施公有制度的社會主義國家，而不是發生在實施市場制度的資本義國家。
Based on the theories proposed and the data accumulated by the social scientists during the past thirty years, with an emphasis on the process of development in both Mainland China and Taiwan, this paper re-examines the long debated impacts of population growth on economic development. It is concluded that population growth can either stimulate or hinder the economic development, depending on how the development is created and formatted. There is no simple rule governing how the population growth affects the economic development. While the economic development in Mainland China is more related to the reform programs than the fertility control, the population growth in Taiwan has preceded the development.