我國人口老化現象與勞動供給預測之分析及其對資產需求變化之影響

摘 要 人口老化已成為當前全球關切的議題。2000 年時已開發國家人口零歲平 均餘命為75 歲，較開發中國家人口零歲平均餘命64 歲，高出11 歲左右。 而我國人口零歲平均餘命亦為75 歲，已達已開發國家水準。這些數據顯示 台灣人口老化的問題也有愈來愈嚴重的趨勢。然而，由於人口結構的改變並 不完全等同於「勞動力」的改變，而勞動力為一國經濟發展之重要因素，故 勞動力結構之發展實不可不予以重視。本文研究的重點之一即為對勞動力年 齡結構未來發展之趨勢，提供深入的預測及分析。而人口老化的問題亦將使 得人們對財富持有的形式發生改變。本文的實證結果發現我國未來勞動力確 實有減少之趨勢，而高齡勞動者比例將提高，致使勞動力平均年齡增加，每 單位勞動力所需供養的老年人也將增加。本文亦利用SUR 模型(Seemingly Unrelated Regression)進行聯立方程式的估計，若將資產分為：債券、貨幣、 股票及土地等四類，人口老化因素對債券及股票需求存在顯著而正向之影 響，但對貨幣及土地需求則為不顯著。
Abstract Aging population is an issue concerned worldwide. The 75-year-old average life expectancy of developed countries is higher than the developing countries by 11 years. Taiwan’s average life expectancy is also 75 years reaching the standard of the developed country, which indicates that the aging problem is an important issue nowadays in Taiwan. However, change of population structure does not necessarily imply that labor force structure will be altered. Due to the importance of the labor force to the economic development, the structure of labor force is too crucial to be ignored. This study therefore analyzes and predicts the age structure of labor force. On the other hand, the alternation of population structure does mean that the possession of wealth will be different. The empirical results focused on Taiwan show the decline trend of labor force and higher percentage of senior labor making the average age of labor force older. Last, but most important, the labor dependency ratio will become higher. The SUR (Seemingly Unrelated Regression) model is applied in this work, and the wealth is categorized as bonds, money, stocks and land. Population aging significantly increases the demand for bonds and stocks, while the impact on the demand for money and land is not significant.