A simple novel model to predict hospital mortality, surgical site infection, and pneumonia in elderly patients undergoing operation

Background/Aims: Predicting models of operative morbidity and mortality in the geriatric population are important in the prevention of adverse surgical outcomes. Methods: A retrospective review of medical records was performed for patients over 80 years of age who underwent gastrointestinal surgery from 1998 to 2008. Results: 215 patients were identified with a mean age of 83.7 years. Overall morbidity and mortality rates were 48.8 and 14.4%, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that serum albumin levels [odds ratio (OR) = 0.367, p = 0.0267], postoperative pneumonia (OR = 3.471, p = 0.0101), hollow organ perforation or anastomosis combined with leakage (OR = 7.600, p = 0.0126), and preoperative systemic inflammatory response syndrome (OR = 3.186, p = 0.0323) were significant predictors of hospital mortality. Moreover, albumin (OR = 0.270, p = 0.0002) and physical disability (OR = 3.802, p = 0.0009) were significant predictors of postoperative pneumonia, and albumin (OR = 0.491, p = 0.0212) and enterotomy (OR = 3.335, p = 0.0208) were significant predictors of surgical site infections. Conclusion: This study provides novel predicting models to identify the elderly surgical patients at high risk, who should receive more intensive preventive and perioperative care.