A west nile virus transmission model with periodic incubation periods∗

Feng Bin Wang; Ruiwen Wu; Xiao Qiang Zhao

doi:10.1137/18M1236162

A west nile virus transmission model with periodic incubation periods∗

Feng Bin Wang, Ruiwen Wu, Xiao Qiang Zhao

Division of Natural Science

Memorial University of Newfoundland

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal Article › peer-review

18 Scopus citations

Abstract

West Nile virus (WNv) is a mosquito-borne disease caused by Flavivirus. To investigate the combined effects of vertical transmission, temperature-dependent incubation periods and seasonality on the transmission of WNv, we develop a delay differential system with stage-structure and time-varying delays. We then derive the mosquito reproduction number RV0 and basic reproduction number R0 and show that these two numbers serve as threshold parameters that determine whether WNv will spread. As an application, we conduct a case study for WNv transmission in Los Angeles County, California. We also carry out numerical simulations to identify the situations that require time-periodic delays. Moreover, we find that rising temperatures may potentially increase the risk of disease outbreaks. c 2019 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1498-1535
Number of pages	38
Journal	SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems
Volume	18
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1137/18M1236162
State	Published - 2019

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics Publications. All rights reserved.

Keywords

Basic reproduction number
Mosquito-borne disease
Temperature-dependent delays
Threshold dynamics
Vertical transmission

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1137/18M1236162

Cite this

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abstract = "West Nile virus (WNv) is a mosquito-borne disease caused by Flavivirus. To investigate the combined effects of vertical transmission, temperature-dependent incubation periods and seasonality on the transmission of WNv, we develop a delay differential system with stage-structure and time-varying delays. We then derive the mosquito reproduction number RV0 and basic reproduction number R0 and show that these two numbers serve as threshold parameters that determine whether WNv will spread. As an application, we conduct a case study for WNv transmission in Los Angeles County, California. We also carry out numerical simulations to identify the situations that require time-periodic delays. Moreover, we find that rising temperatures may potentially increase the risk of disease outbreaks. c 2019 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.",

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T1 - A west nile virus transmission model with periodic incubation periods∗

AU - Wang, Feng Bin

AU - Wu, Ruiwen

AU - Zhao, Xiao Qiang

PY - 2019

Y1 - 2019

N2 - West Nile virus (WNv) is a mosquito-borne disease caused by Flavivirus. To investigate the combined effects of vertical transmission, temperature-dependent incubation periods and seasonality on the transmission of WNv, we develop a delay differential system with stage-structure and time-varying delays. We then derive the mosquito reproduction number RV0 and basic reproduction number R0 and show that these two numbers serve as threshold parameters that determine whether WNv will spread. As an application, we conduct a case study for WNv transmission in Los Angeles County, California. We also carry out numerical simulations to identify the situations that require time-periodic delays. Moreover, we find that rising temperatures may potentially increase the risk of disease outbreaks. c 2019 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

AB - West Nile virus (WNv) is a mosquito-borne disease caused by Flavivirus. To investigate the combined effects of vertical transmission, temperature-dependent incubation periods and seasonality on the transmission of WNv, we develop a delay differential system with stage-structure and time-varying delays. We then derive the mosquito reproduction number RV0 and basic reproduction number R0 and show that these two numbers serve as threshold parameters that determine whether WNv will spread. As an application, we conduct a case study for WNv transmission in Los Angeles County, California. We also carry out numerical simulations to identify the situations that require time-periodic delays. Moreover, we find that rising temperatures may potentially increase the risk of disease outbreaks. c 2019 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

KW - Basic reproduction number

KW - Mosquito-borne disease

KW - Temperature-dependent delays

KW - Threshold dynamics

KW - Vertical transmission

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DO - 10.1137/18M1236162

M3 - 文章

AN - SCOPUS:85072523634

SN - 1536-0040

VL - 18

SP - 1498

EP - 1535

JO - SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems

JF - SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems

IS - 3

ER -

A west nile virus transmission model with periodic incubation periods∗

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

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