Abdominal aortic calcification score predicts the occurrence of coronary artery disease in middle-aged peritoneal dialysis patients

Aim: Abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) score in dialysis patients was associated with coronary artery disease (CAD) in cross-sectional study, but the use of AAC score in the CAD prediction was not clear. We aimed to use AAC score in the estimation of CAD occurrence in middle-aged peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Methods: Middle-aged (45–65 years old) PD patients were recruited and followed up until CAD occurrence, patient mortality, or PD failure. We quantified AAC score by lateral lumbar radiography, and used receiver operation curve (ROC) analysis to find the cut-off value for CAD prediction. Results: There were 187 patients recruited for study with a mean follow-up of 1027 ± 427 days. AAC score in patients with CAD during follow-up period (9.7 ± 7.6, n = 41) was higher than in patients without CAD occurrence (5.5 ± 6.1, n = 146) (P < 0.001). Multivariate hazard ratio of AAC score for CAD was 1.07 (P = 0.044). ROC showed that AAC score of 5.5 had a sensitivity of 0.667 and a specificity of 0.581 in the prediction of CAD occurrence. Patients with AAC score above 5.5 had significantly higher cumulative incidence of CAD than patients with AAC score below 5.5 (Log-rank test, P = 0.003). Age (P = 0.002), diabetes (P = 0.002), hypertension (P = 0.032), longer dialysis vintage (P < 0.001) and lower serum potassium (P = 0.012) were parameters significantly associated with higher AAC score. Conclusion: AAC score can predict CAD occurrence in PD patients. Age, diabetes, hypertension, dialysis vintage and serum potassium level are factors associated with higher AAC score.