Assessing mortality risk in Type 2 Diabetes patients with prolonged ASCVD risk factors: the inclusive Poh-Ai predictive scoring system with CAC Score integration

Meng Huan Lei, Yu Chen Hsu, Sheng Liang Chung, Chao Chin Chen, Wei Cheng Chen, Wan Ming Chen, An Tzu Jao, Ju Feng Hsiao, Jen Te Hsu*, Szu Yuan Wu*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal Article peer-review

Abstract

PURPOSE: To enhance the predictive risk model for all-cause mortality in individuals with Type 2 Diabetes (T2DM) and prolonged Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk factors. Despite the utility of the Coronary Artery Calcium (CAC) score in assessing cardiovascular risk, its capacity to predict all-cause mortality remains limited.

METHODS: A retrospective cohort study included 1929 asymptomatic T2DM patients with ASCVD risk factors, aged 40-80. Variables encompassed demographic attributes, clinical parameters, CAC scores, comorbidities, and medication usage. Factors predicting all-cause mortality were selected to create a predictive scoring system. By using stepwise selection in a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model, we divided the patients into three risk groups.

RESULTS: In our analysis of all-cause mortality in T2DM patients with extended ASCVD risk factors over 5 years, we identified significant risk factors, their adjusted hazard ratios (aHR), and scores: e.g., CAC score > 1000 (aHR: 1.57, score: 2), CAC score 401-1000 (aHR: 2.05, score: 2), and more. These factors strongly predict all-cause mortality, with varying risk groups (e.g., very low-risk: 2.0%, very high-risk: 24.0%). Significant differences in 5-year overall survival rates were observed among these groups (log-rank test < 0.001).

CONCLUSION: The Poh-Ai Predictive Scoring System excels in forecasting mortality and cardiovascular events in individuals with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and extended ASCVD risk factors.

Original languageEnglish
Article number104
Pages (from-to)104
JournalDiabetology and Metabolic Syndrome
Volume16
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - 19 05 2024
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

© 2024. The Author(s).

Keywords

  • All-cause mortality
  • Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease
  • Coronary artery calcium
  • Predictive scoring system
  • Type 2 diabetes

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