Circulating Fibroblast Growth Factor-23 Levels Can Predict Rapid Kidney Function Decline in a Healthy Population: A Community-Based Study

Background: Fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF-23) associates with decreased kidney function in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, the correlation between circulating FGF-23 levels and the rate of renal function decline in healthy individuals is largely unknown. We aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of FGF-23 for rapid kidney function decline (RKFD) in a community-based study. Methods: A total of 2963 people residing in northern Taiwan were enrolled from August 2013 to May 2018 for an annual assessment of kidney function for five years. The baseline estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) were calculated using the 2009 and 2021 Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation, which aggregates the values of serum creatinine and cystatin C (eGFRcr-cys). The outcome was RKFD—a 15% decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) within the first four years, and a reduction in eGFR without improvement in the 5th year. A generalized additive model (GAM) was used to determine the cut-off value of FGF-23 to predict RKFD. Results: The incidence of RKFD was 18.0% (114/634). After matching for age and sex at a 1:1 ratio, a total of 220 subjects were analyzed. eGFRcr-cys was negatively correlated with total vitamin D level but seemed irrelevant to FGF-23. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that FGF-23, eGFRcr-cys, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) were independent predictors of the possibility of RKFD. FGF-23 showed the best predictive performance for RKFD (AUROC: 0.803), followed by baseline eGFRcr-cys (AUROC: 0.639) and UACR (AUROC: 0.591). From the GAM, 32 pg/mL was the most appropriate cut-off value of FGF-23 with which to predict RKFD. The subgroup and sensitivity analyses showed consistent results that high-FGF-23 subjects had higher risks of RKFD. Conclusions: Circulating FGF-23 level could be a helpful predictor for RKFD in this community-based population.