Complete response at first transarterial chemoembolization predicts favorable outcome in hepatocellular carcinoma

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is the mainstay of treatment for patients with intermediate/advanced stage or unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Despite the palliative nature of TACE treatment, embolizing the tumor feeding vessels and leading to progressive tumor necrosis, complete response (CR) after TACE could still be observed in a certain population. Thus, this study aimed to investigate both the predictors for CR and the long-term prognosis of the patients with CR after TACE. The study recruited new diagnosed HCC patients initially treated with TACE from 2010 to 2013. Post TACE response was assessed by scheduled image studies according to the modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (mRECIST). Then, pre-TACE factors were compared between patients with and without CR. After the first session of TACE, 22.3% of the 669 TACE treated patients achieved CR. During a median of 26.6 months follow-up, patients with CR had better overall survival than those without (median: 35.8 vs. 24.0 months, P<0.001). By multivariate logistic regression analysis, Child-Turcotte-Pugh class B (OR: 0.419, P=0.005), tumor burden beyond up-to-7 criteria (OR: 0.118, P<0.001), bilobar tumor extent (OR: 0.236, P<0.001), higher alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level (>= 20 ng/ml, OR: 0.614, P=0.039) and higher platelet counts (>150 k/mu l, OR: 0.482, P=0.002) were unfavorable predictors for CR after first TACE. In addition, macrovascular invasion (HR: 3.113, P=0.001) and higher AFP levels (>= 15 ng/ml, HR: 2.601, P=0.007) were predictors for early HCC recurrence whereas diabetes mellitus (DM) (HR: 2.166, P=0.006) was the only significant predictor for late HCC recurrence in CR patients. In conclusion, more than one-fifth of HCC patients achieved CR after first TACE and these patients had favorable prognosis. Furthermore, tailored post-TACE follow-up strategies shall be considered in patients with different risk factors of early or late recurrence after CR.