Glycemic status and risks of thromboembolism and major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation

Background: Studies specifically examining the association between glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels and ischemic stroke/systemic thromboembolism (IS/SE) risk in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients are limited. Here, we investigated the association between HbA1c levels and the risk of IS/SE, as well as major bleeding, among AF patients with or without oral anticoagulants (OACs). We also compared the effectiveness and safety of warfarin and direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) in different HbA1c categories. Methods: We utilized medical data from a multi-center healthcare provider in Taiwan, which included 34,036 AF patients with serum HbA1c data available within 3 months after AF being diagnosed. Patients were divided into seven study groups according to their HbA1c levels: < 5.4%, 5.4%-5.6%, 5.7%-5.9%, 6.0%-6.4%, 6.5%-6.9%, 7.0%-7.9%, and ≥ 8.0%. The risks of IS/SE and major bleeding were compared among the groups after adjusting for baseline stroke and bleeding risk factors. Results: Compared with the patients with HbA1c level < 5.4%, IS/SE risk significantly increased at HbA1c levels higher than 6.5% [adjusted hazard ratio (HR): 1.20, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00-1.43 for HbA1c level 6.5%-6.9%; 1.32, (95% CI 1.11-1.57) for HbA1c level 7.0%-7.9%; and 1.48 (95% CI 1.25-1.76) for HbA1c level ≥ 8.0%]. These results were generally consistent in AF patients without OACs (n = 24,931). However, among 9105 patients receiving OACs, IS/SE risk was not higher for patients having higher HbA1c levels. The risk of major bleeding was comparable across all HbA1c categories. Compared with warfarin, DOACs were associated with lower risks of IS/SE (adjusted HR: 0.61, 95% CI 0.49-0.75) and major bleeding (adjusted HR: 0.30, 95% CI 0.21-0.42) without interactions across different HbA1c categories (all P interactions > 0.05). Conclusion: For AF patients, IS/SE risk significantly increased once HbA1c levels exceeded 6.5%, and OACs may attenuate these associations. Compared with warfarin, DOACs were more effective and safer across broad HbA1c categories. Therefore, in addition to prescribing DOACs when indicated, more aggressive glycemic control to achieve an HbA1c level < 6.5% may be considered for eligible AF patients and should be tested in further prospective studies.