Health Transition Probability and Long-Term Care Cost Estimation

Xiaodong Cui; Xuexiang Duan; Ching Ter Chang; Shuhua Jiang

doi:10.1155/2022/7980111

Health Transition Probability and Long-Term Care Cost Estimation

Xiaodong Cui, Xuexiang Duan, Ching Ter Chang^*, Shuhua Jiang

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal Article › peer-review

4 Scopus citations

Abstract

The cost of long-term care (LTC) is one of the huge financial risks faced by the elderly and also is a significant challenge to the social security system. This article establishes a piecewise constant Markov model to estimate the dynamic health transition probability and based on actuarial theory to calculate the long-term care cost, in contrast to the static or nontransferable state hypotheses in traditional models. Using the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, this article found that the average cost of LTC for the elderly varies greatly due to gender and health conditions, the cost for women may increase by up to 75% compared to that for men, and the cost for unhealthy elderly may more than double compared to that for healthy elderly. Furthermore, if LTC is included in the medical insurance system, in theory, women's average pay price will be more than twice that of men.

Original language	English
Article number	7980111
Journal	Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Volume	2022
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/7980111
State	Published - 2022
Externally published	Yes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Xiaodong Cui et al.

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title = "Health Transition Probability and Long-Term Care Cost Estimation",

abstract = "The cost of long-term care (LTC) is one of the huge financial risks faced by the elderly and also is a significant challenge to the social security system. This article establishes a piecewise constant Markov model to estimate the dynamic health transition probability and based on actuarial theory to calculate the long-term care cost, in contrast to the static or nontransferable state hypotheses in traditional models. Using the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, this article found that the average cost of LTC for the elderly varies greatly due to gender and health conditions, the cost for women may increase by up to 75\% compared to that for men, and the cost for unhealthy elderly may more than double compared to that for healthy elderly. Furthermore, if LTC is included in the medical insurance system, in theory, women's average pay price will be more than twice that of men.",

author = "Xiaodong Cui and Xuexiang Duan and Chang, \{Ching Ter\} and Shuhua Jiang",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 Xiaodong Cui et al.",

year = "2022",

doi = "10.1155/2022/7980111",

language = "英语",

volume = "2022",

journal = "Mathematical Problems in Engineering",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Health Transition Probability and Long-Term Care Cost Estimation

AU - Cui, Xiaodong

AU - Duan, Xuexiang

AU - Chang, Ching Ter

AU - Jiang, Shuhua

PY - 2022

Y1 - 2022

N2 - The cost of long-term care (LTC) is one of the huge financial risks faced by the elderly and also is a significant challenge to the social security system. This article establishes a piecewise constant Markov model to estimate the dynamic health transition probability and based on actuarial theory to calculate the long-term care cost, in contrast to the static or nontransferable state hypotheses in traditional models. Using the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, this article found that the average cost of LTC for the elderly varies greatly due to gender and health conditions, the cost for women may increase by up to 75% compared to that for men, and the cost for unhealthy elderly may more than double compared to that for healthy elderly. Furthermore, if LTC is included in the medical insurance system, in theory, women's average pay price will be more than twice that of men.

AB - The cost of long-term care (LTC) is one of the huge financial risks faced by the elderly and also is a significant challenge to the social security system. This article establishes a piecewise constant Markov model to estimate the dynamic health transition probability and based on actuarial theory to calculate the long-term care cost, in contrast to the static or nontransferable state hypotheses in traditional models. Using the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, this article found that the average cost of LTC for the elderly varies greatly due to gender and health conditions, the cost for women may increase by up to 75% compared to that for men, and the cost for unhealthy elderly may more than double compared to that for healthy elderly. Furthermore, if LTC is included in the medical insurance system, in theory, women's average pay price will be more than twice that of men.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85129496690

U2 - 10.1155/2022/7980111

DO - 10.1155/2022/7980111

M3 - 文章

AN - SCOPUS:85129496690

SN - 1024-123X

VL - 2022

JO - Mathematical Problems in Engineering

JF - Mathematical Problems in Engineering

M1 - 7980111

ER -

Health Transition Probability and Long-Term Care Cost Estimation

Abstract

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