Incidence, risk factors, and outcomes of arterial thromboembolism in patients with pancreatic cancer following palliative chemotherapy

Background: Few studies have explored the association between pancreatic cancer and arterial thromboembolism (aTE). Methods: A total of 838 consecutive patients receiving palliative chemotherapy for pancreatic cancer between 2010 and 2016 were retrospectively enrolled. The clinical characteristics of patients were analyzed to determine the incidence, risk factors, and survival outcome of aTE in patients with pancreatic cancer. Results: aTE occurred in 42 (5.0%) of 838 patients. Patients with aTE had a worse survival outcome than those without (5.1 months versus 7.8 months, hazard ratio 1.53, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.12–2.09). Stage IV disease, high aspartate transaminase level, and comorbidity with hypertension or atrial fibrillation were four independent predictors of aTE. A concise predictive model stratified patients into low (0–1 predictor), intermediate (2 predictors), and high (3–4 predictors) risk groups. The hazard ratios for the comparison of patients in intermediate and high risk groups with those in low risk group were 4.55 (95% CI: 2.31–8.98), and 13.3 (95% CI: 5.63–31.6), respectively. Conclusion: Patients with pancreatic cancer undergoing palliative chemotherapy have an increased risk of aTE. A predictive model showed that patients presented with 3 or 4 predictors had the highest risk for developing aTE.