Abstract
This paper presents a flexible, lattice-based structural credit risk model that uses equity market information and a detailed depiction of a financial institution's liability structure to analyze default risk. The model is applied to examine the term structure of default probabilities for Lehman Brothers prior to its demise. The results indicate, as early as March, that the firm would likely lose access to external capital within two years. The model can be used as both a diagnostic tool for the early detection of financial distress and a prescriptive tool for addressing the sources of risk in large, complex financial institutions.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 117-139 |
| Number of pages | 23 |
| Journal | Journal of Banking and Finance |
| Volume | 45 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - 08 2014 |
| Externally published | Yes |
UN SDGs
This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
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SDG 10 Reduced Inequalities
Keywords
- Default probability
- Financial crisis
- Lehman brothers
- Liquidity
- Risk management
- Structural credit risk models
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