Liver stiffness-based score at sustained virologic response predicts liver-related complications after eradication of hepatitis C virus

To determine whether liver stiffness (LS) and fibrosis-4 (Fib-4) index were useful in assessing the occurrence of liver-related complications (LRC) in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients after direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) had been administered. This retrospective study enrolled CHC patients achieving sustained virological response (SVR) after DAA. A total of 697 (male/female: 294/403, mean age: 63.8 year) patients with measured LS and complete lab data at SVR were enrolled, followed, and analyzed. In a median follow-up of 21.4 months after SVR, 39 patients developed LRC including 28 with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), with the 30-month cumulative incidence of LRC and HCC being 7.7% and 5.1%, respectively. Predictions of occurrence of LRC and HCC were 0.820 and 0.774 for LS, and 0.775 and 0.737 for Fib-4, with optimal cutoffs of LS and Fib-4 being 14.5 kPa and 2.9 for LRC prediction. In multivariate analysis, LS was associated with the occurrence of LRC (hazard ratio: 3.97, 95% confidence interval [1.866, 8.446], p < 0.001) after adjustment for Fib-4 and diabetes. A risk-score system combining LS, Fib-4, and diabetes was developed for LRC risk assessment. Patients were stratified into low- (score 0–1), intermediate- (score 2–3), and high-risk (score 4) groups with LRC cumulative incidences of 1.7%, 14.9%, and 36.4%, respectively (p < 0.001). For patients with CHC after DAA, the risk scoring system based on LS, Fib-4, and diabetes was useful to assess the risk of LRC development during follow-up; accordingly, it would be advantageous for clinicians to set up more personalized and cost-effective strategies of surveillance.