Long-term Risks of Cirrhosis and Hepatocellular Carcinoma Across Steatotic Liver Disease Subtypes

INTRODUCTION: The prospective study aimed to investigate the long-term associated risks of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) across various subtypes of steatotic liver disease (SLD).

METHODS: We enrolled 332,175 adults who participated in a health screening program between 1997 and 2013. Participants were categorized into various subtypes, including metabolic dysfunction-associated SLD (MASLD), MASLD with excessive alcohol consumption (MetALD), and alcohol-related liver disease (ALD), based on ultrasonography findings, alcohol consumption patterns, and cardiometabolic risk factors. We used computerized data linkage with nationwide registries from 1997 to 2019 to ascertain the incidence of cirrhosis and HCC.

RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 16 years, 4,458 cases of cirrhosis and 1,392 cases of HCC occurred in the entire cohort, resulting in an incidence rate of 86.1 and 26.8 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. The ALD group exhibited the highest incidence rate for cirrhosis and HCC, followed by MetALD, MASLD, and non-SLD groups. The multivariate adjusted hazard ratios for HCC were 1.92 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.51-2.44), 2.91 (95% CI 2.11-4.03), and 2.59 (95% CI 1.93-3.48) for MASLD, MetALD, and ALD, respectively, when compared with non-SLD without cardiometabolic risk factors. The pattern of the associated risk of cirrhosis was similar to that of HCC (all P value <0.001). The associated risk of cirrhosis for ALD increased to 4.74 (95% CI 4.08-5.52) when using non-SLD without cardiometabolic risk factors as a reference.

DISCUSSION: This study highlights elevated risks of cirrhosis and HCC across various subtypes of SLD compared with non-SLD, emphasizing the importance of behavioral modifications for early prevention.