Modeling the role of temperature-dependent microbiome composition in black band disease transmission among coral reefs

Black band disease (BBD) is one of the most prevalent diseases causing significant destruction of coral reefs. Coral reefs acquire this deadly disease from bacteria in the microbiome community, the composition of which is highly affected by the environmental temperature. While previous studies have provided valuable insights into various aspects of BBD, the temperature-dependent microbiome composition has not been considered in existing BBD models. We developed a transmission dynamics model, incorporating the effects of temperature on the microbiome composition and, subsequently, on BBD in coral reefs. Based on our non-autonomous model systems, we calculate the infection invasion threshold, providing an environmental condition for the disease to persist in the coral reef community. Our results suggest that temperature significantly impacts coral reef health, with microbiome-favored moderate environmental temperatures resulting in more BBD-infected corals. Our model and related results help investigate potential strategies to protect reef ecosystems from stressors, including BBD.