New Scoring Method to Predict Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C after Pegylated Interferon and Ribavirin Therapy

Antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis C (CHC) infection using pegylated interferon and ribavirin (PR) therapy can reduce the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Our study developed a new scoring method for predicting HCC risk after PR therapy. Between 2002 and 2016, 743 PR-Treated patients with CHC were enrolled. Significant predictors for HCC were identified using multiple Cox regression analysis in study cohort: Treatment age ≥60 years (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.3-3.7), pretreatment bilirubin ≥1.1mg/dL (HR: 1.99, 95% CI = 1.08-3.67), a-fetoprotein ≥7.9 ng/mL (HR: 2.44, 95% CI = 1.16-5.32), no sustained virological response (SVR; HR: 1.91, 95% CI = 1.05-3.45), and baseline cirrhosis (HR: 4.45, 95% CI = 2.07-9.73). These predictors form the new HCC prediction scoring method with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.884, sensitivity of 86.2%, and specificity of 74%. In patients with CHC and SVR, the cumulative incidence of HCC at 5 and 10 years was 16.7% and 30.4%, respectively, in patients with high risk scores and 1.2% and 4.2%, respectively, in patients with low risk scores (P< 0.001). Patients with SVR and high risk scores after viral eradication should remain under an intensive surveillance program for HCC.