Placebo effects on all-cause mortality of patients with COVID-19 in randomized controlled trials of interleukin 6 antagonists: A systematic review and network meta-analysis

Aim: Many randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have investigated the use of interleukin 6 antagonists for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), yielding inconsistent results. This network meta-analysis (NMA) aimed to identify the source of these inconsistent results by reassessing whether participants treated with standard of care (SoC) plus placebo have different all-cause mortality from those treated with SoC alone and to reevaluate the efficacy of interleukin 6 antagonists in the treatment of COVID-19. Methods: We conducted a systematic search for relevant RCTs from the inception of electronic databases through 1 September 2022. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. The secondary outcomes were the incidences of major medical events, secondary infections, all-cause discontinuation, and serious adverse events. Results: The results of NMA of 33 RCTs showed that patients with COVID-19 treated with SoC plus placebo had lower odds of all-cause mortality than those who received SoC alone (OR, 0.75 [95% confidence interval, 0.58–0.97]). This finding remained consistent after excluding studies with no incident deaths. In addition, when we consider the impact of the widely promoted COVID-19 vaccination and newly developed antiviral treatment strategy, the results from the analysis of the RCT published in 2021 and 2022 remained similar. Conclusion: These findings suggest the potential influence of placebo effects on the treatment outcomes of COVID-19 in RCTs. When evaluating the efficacy of treatment strategies for COVID-19, it is crucial to consider the use of placebo in the design of clinical trials.