Prediction of Malignant Transformation of WHO II Astrocytoma Using Mathematical Models Incorporating Apparent Diffusion Coefficient and Contrast Enhancement

Using only increasing contrast enhancement as a marker of malignant transformation (MT) in gliomas has low specificity and may affect interpretation of clinical outcomes. Therefore we developed a mathematical model to predict MT of low-grade gliomas (LGGs) by considering areas of reduced apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) with increased contrast enhancement. Patients with contrast-enhancing LGGs who had contemporaneous ADC and histopathology were retrospectively analyzed. Multiple clinical factors and imaging factors (contrast-enhancement size, whole-tumor size, and ADC) were assessed for association with MT. Patients were split into training and validation groups for the development of a predictive model using logistic regression which was assessed with receiver operating characteristic analysis. Among 132 patients, (median age 46.5 years), 106 patients (64 MT) were assigned to the training group and 26 (20 MT) to the validation group. The predictive model comprised age (P = 0.110), radiotherapy (P = 0.168), contrast-enhancement size (P = 0.015), and ADC (P < 0.001). The predictive model (area-under-the-curve [AUC] 0.87) outperformed ADC (AUC 0.85) and contrast-enhancement size (AUC 0.67). The model had an accuracy of 84% for the training group and 85% respectively for the validation group. Our model incorporating ADC and contrast-enhancement size predicted MT in contrast-enhancing LGGs.