Predictors of long-term survival prior to permanent pacemaker implantation in octogenarians or older

Background: There is an increased need for permanent pacemaker (PPM) implantation for older patients with multiple comorbidities. The current guidelines recommend that, before implanting PPM, clinicians should discuss life expectancy with patients and their families as part of the decision-making process. However, estimating individual life expectancy is always a challenge. Aims: We investigated predictors of long-term survival prior to PPM implantation in patients aged 80 or older. Methods and results: From September 2004 to September 2015, 100 patients aged ≥ 80 years who received PPM implantation were included for retrospective survival analysis. The end point was all-cause mortality. Follow-up duration was 4.0 ± 2.7 years. By the end of the study, 54 patients (54%) had died. Of the 54 who died, 40 patients (74.1%) died of non-cardiac causes. Their survival rates at 1, 2, 3, 5, and 7 years were 90%, 76%, 54%, 32%, and 16%, respectively. Patients with a longer length of hospital stay before PPM implantation (LOS-B) [hazard ratio (HR) 1.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.05, p < 0.001], estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 30 ml/min/1.73 m² (HR 4.07, 95% CI 1.95–8.52, p < 0.001), body mass index (BMI) < 21 kg/m² (HR 2.50, 95% CI 1.16–5.39, p = 0.02), and dyspnea as the major presenting symptom (HR 2.88, 95% CI 1.27–6.55, p = 0.01) were associated with lower cumulative survival. Conclusions: Longer LOS-B, lower eGFR and BMI, and dyspnea as the major presenting symptom are pre-PPM implantation predictors of long-term survival in patients aged 80 or older.