Preoperative risk stratification of permanent stoma in patients with non-metastatic mid and low rectal cancer undergoing curative resection and a temporary stoma

Background: Although a temporary stoma can mitigate the severity of anastomotic leakage, some rectal cancer patients retain a permanent stoma after sphincter-preserving surgery. Therefore, this study aimed to identify independent preoperative risk factors for permanent stoma and establish a prediction model for mid-and low-rectal cancer patients who underwent sphincter-preserving surgery and temporary stoma. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed consecutive patients with non-metastatic rectal cancer between 2000 and 2015. The risk factors for permanent stomas were collected and analyzed. Results: A total of 1020 rectal cancer patients with temporary stoma were included. The overall rate of permanent stoma was 17.5% (n = 179). Cancer progression and anastomotic complications are major causes of permanent stomas. Multivariate analysis showed that preoperative risk factors such as advanced age, male sex, preoperative CEA ≥ 10 ng/ml, T4 stage, N stage, low rectal tumor, and ASA ≥ III were independent preoperative risk factors after adjustment. The ROC curve of the risk factors and permanent stoma showed an AUC of 0.689, a cut-off value of 2.5, a sensitivity of 0.689, and a specificity of 0.622. The permanent stoma rates were significantly higher between risk scores ≤ 2 and > 2 (29.9% vs. 11.3%, p < 0.001). Conclusion: Preoperative CEA ≥ 10 ng/ml, T4 stage, N stage, low rectal tumor, advanced age, ASA ≥ III, and male sex were independent preoperative prognostic factors for a permanent stoma. The risk was higher with a score greater than two. Therefore, the risk of subsequent permanent stoma should be evaluated and informed to the patient prior to the primary surgery.