Probabilities and Lifetime Durations of Short-Stay Hospital and Nursing Home Use in the United States, 1985

OBJECTIVES: The authors present a four-state increment-decrement life table model from which estimates of the risk and duration of nursing home and short-term hospital stays in the United States are derived. METHODS: Survival analysis was used to generate various transition probabilities while controlling for population heterogeneity. In addition, a newly developed algorithm was applied to construct the multistate life table specifically for health-care use. RESULTS: The results reveal that in 1985, a US civilian is expected to spend 72.35 years in the community, 59.5 days in short-stay hospitals, and 2.28 years in nursing homes throughout his or her lifetime. CONCLUSIONS: The single-year risk of nursing home and short-stay hospital use is shown to be an increasing function of age, especially for the older adults.