TY - JOUR
T1 - The hidden curve behind COVID-19 outbreak
T2 - the impact of delay in treatment initiation in cancer patients and how to mitigate the additional risk of dying—the head and neck cancer model
AU - Matos, Leandro L.
AU - Forster, Carlos Henrique Q.
AU - Marta, Gustavo N.
AU - Castro Junior, Gilberto
AU - Ridge, John A.
AU - Hirata, Daisy
AU - Miranda-Filho, Adalberto
AU - Hosny, Ali
AU - Sanabria, Alvaro
AU - Gregoire, Vincent
AU - Patel, Snehal G.
AU - Fagan, Johannes J.
AU - D’Cruz, Anil K.
AU - Licitra, Lisa
AU - Mehanna, Hisham
AU - Hao, Sheng Po
AU - Psyrri, Amanda
AU - Porceddu, Sandro
AU - Galloway, Thomas J.
AU - Golusinski, Wojciech
AU - Lee, Nancy Y.
AU - Shiguemori, Elcio H.
AU - Matieli, José Elias
AU - Shiguemori, Ana Paula A.C.
AU - Diamantino, Letícia R.
AU - Schiaveto, Luiz Felipe
AU - Leão, Lysia
AU - Castro, Ana F.
AU - Carvalho, André Lopes
AU - Kowalski, Luiz Paulo
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.
PY - 2021/5
Y1 - 2021/5
N2 - Purpose: The rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic around the world caused most healthcare services to turn substantial attention to treatment of these patients and also to alter the structure of healthcare systems to address an infectious disease. As a result, many cancer patients had their treatment deferred during the pandemic, increasing the time-to-treatment initiation, the number of untreated patients (which will alter the dynamics of healthcare delivery in the post-pandemic era) and increasing their risk of death. Hence, we analyzed the impact on global cancer mortality considering the decline in oncology care during the COVID-19 outbreak using head and neck cancer, a known time-dependent disease, as a model. Methods: An online practical tool capable of predicting the risk of cancer patients dying due to the COVID-19 outbreak and also useful for mitigation strategies after the peak of the pandemic has been developed, based on a mathematical model. The scenarios were estimated by information of 15 oncological services worldwide, given a perspective from the five continents and also some simulations were conducted at world demographic data. Results: The model demonstrates that the more that cancer care was maintained during the outbreak and also the more it is increased during the mitigation period, the shorter will be the recovery, lessening the additional risk of dying due to time-to-treatment initiation. Conclusions: This impact of COVID-19 pandemic on cancer patients is inevitable, but it is possible to minimize it with an effort measured by the proposed model.
AB - Purpose: The rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic around the world caused most healthcare services to turn substantial attention to treatment of these patients and also to alter the structure of healthcare systems to address an infectious disease. As a result, many cancer patients had their treatment deferred during the pandemic, increasing the time-to-treatment initiation, the number of untreated patients (which will alter the dynamics of healthcare delivery in the post-pandemic era) and increasing their risk of death. Hence, we analyzed the impact on global cancer mortality considering the decline in oncology care during the COVID-19 outbreak using head and neck cancer, a known time-dependent disease, as a model. Methods: An online practical tool capable of predicting the risk of cancer patients dying due to the COVID-19 outbreak and also useful for mitigation strategies after the peak of the pandemic has been developed, based on a mathematical model. The scenarios were estimated by information of 15 oncological services worldwide, given a perspective from the five continents and also some simulations were conducted at world demographic data. Results: The model demonstrates that the more that cancer care was maintained during the outbreak and also the more it is increased during the mitigation period, the shorter will be the recovery, lessening the additional risk of dying due to time-to-treatment initiation. Conclusions: This impact of COVID-19 pandemic on cancer patients is inevitable, but it is possible to minimize it with an effort measured by the proposed model.
KW - COVID-19
KW - Head and Neck Neoplasms
KW - Mortality
KW - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation
KW - Time-to-Treatment
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85102560960&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s10552-021-01411-7
DO - 10.1007/s10552-021-01411-7
M3 - 文章
C2 - 33704627
AN - SCOPUS:85102560960
SN - 0957-5243
VL - 32
SP - 459
EP - 471
JO - Cancer Causes and Control
JF - Cancer Causes and Control
IS - 5
ER -