The incidence and predictors of post transarterial chemoembolization variceal bleeding in hepatocellular carcinoma patients

Background & aims: Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is the standard of care for intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. Variceal bleeding is a life-threatening complication and may alter the initial treatment plan. This study was aimed to elucidate the risk factors for variceal bleeding in HCC patients receiving TACE treatment. Methods: From 2005 to 2016, a total of 1233 treatment-naive HCC patients receiving first time TACE treatment in Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Linkou medical center were recruited. Pre-TACE status including baseline characteristics, prior history of ascites, and parameters for liver function evaluation were analyzed. All the variables were compared between patients with and without variceal bleeding. Results: Among the 1233 patients, the median age was 63.7 (range 25.8–91.5) years old, and 73.5% were male. Variceal bleeding events were documented in 19 patients (1.5%) within 3 months post TACE treatment. Patients with younger age, cirrhosis, pre-treatment ascites and advanced fibrosis status (higher MELD score, CTP score, ALBI grade, FIB-4 and APRI score) were more likely to encounter post-treatment variceal bleeding. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed existence of ascites (adjusted HR: 4.859 (1.947–12.124), p = 0.001), and higher FIB-4 score (adjusted HR: 4.481 (1.796–11.179), p = 0.001) were the independent predictive factors for variceal bleeding. Patients with post-TACE variceal bleeding are more likely to encounter tumor progression (42.1% vs. 20.3%, p = 0.039) and mortality owing to GI bleeding (15.8% vs. 3%, p = 0.032). Conclusion: The incidence of post-TACE variceal bleeding was 1.5%. Patients with post-TACE variceal bleeding have poorer TACE treatment response. The pre-treatment ascites and FIB-4 score are the independent predictors for post-TACE variceal bleeding.