Value of early evaluation of treatment response using ¹⁸ F-FDG PET/CT parameters and the Epstein-Barr virus DNA load for prediction of outcome in patients with primary nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Purpose: To determine the value of early evaluation of response to concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) using ¹⁸ F-FDG PET-derived parameters and the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA titre in outcome prediction in patients with primary nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Methods: Sixty patients with primary NPC were prospectively enrolled. All patients underwent ¹⁸ F-FDG PET/CT before and during CCRT. The plasma EBV DNA titre was measured along with the PET/CT-derived parameters. Changes in EBV DNA titre and PET/CT-derived parameters during CCRT were analysed in relation to response to treatment, recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS). Results: A total lesion glycolysis (TLG) reduction ratio of ≤0.6 and a detectable EBV DNA titre during CCRT were predictors of an unfavourable response to treatment, RFS and OS. In multivariate analysis, a TLG reduction ratio of ≤0.6 predicted incomplete remission (p = 0.002) and decreased RFS (p = 0.003). The proportion of patients with a TLG reduction ratio of >0.6 who achieved a complete response was more than twice that of patients with a TLG reduction ratio of ≤0.6. A detectable EBV DNA titre, a TLG reduction ratio of ≤0.6 and older age were independently associated with a poorer OS (p = 0.037, 0.009 and 0.016, respectively). A scoring system was developed based on these independent predictors of OS. Patients with a score of 1 and 2/3 had poorer survival outcomes than those with a score of 0 (hazard ratio 4.756, p = 0.074, and hazard ratio 18.973, p = 0.001, respectively). This scoring system appeared to be superior to the traditional TNM staging system (p < 0.001 versus p = 0.175). Conclusion: Early evaluation of response to CCRT using ¹⁸ F-FDG PET-derived parameters and the EBV DNA titre can predict outcome in patients with primary NPC. A combination of interim PET parameters and the EBV DNA titre enables better stratification of patients into subgroups with different survival rates.