臺北都會區的人口分佈與變遷

The paper applies the urban population density function and its derivatives to the analysis of population redistribution in the Taipei metropolitan area during the period of 1962-1979. In the first section, the Taipei metropolitan area is defined as composed of the ,16 administrative districh of the Taipei City ,andthe 12 townships surrounding the city. The definition is based on an assumption that the population densities of different locales in a metropolitan area are relatively symmetric in a descending order about the center. In the second section, the urban population density function and its derivatives are discussed. It is found that though the urban population density functionfits well to the empirical data of the cities, a population growth equation derived from it departs systematically from thehistorical pattem of differential growth in the metropolitan area. In the third section, with some logarithmic transformation, OLS procedure is applied to yield statistical estimation of the parameters. It is empirically determined that while the density function provides an accurate series of measurement of the extent of suburbaniza?tion in the metropo1itan area, the growth equation fits rather poorly to the distributions of population growth rates. The Burgess’ concentric zone theory as a theory of ecological succession is invoked to render a plausible explanation of the systematic departures of growth equation from the growth rates. A dynamic model of city growth, it is suggesteed. is meaninglesswithout a built-in process of ecological succession.