Prevalence and predictors of posttraumatic stress disorder and depressive symptoms among burn survivors two years after the 2015 Formosa Fun Coast Water Park explosion in Taiwan

Background: Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depressive symptoms are relatively common in burn survivors. Several previously reported risk factors (e.g. burn severity) have not consistently predicted psychological adjustment post-burn. Empirically-derived risk factors of PTSD from the meta-analysis and theory-derived cognitive variables may be of great predictive value. Objective: This study investigated the prevalence of probable DSM-5 PTSD and major depression (MDD) and the predictors of PTSD and depressive symptoms in burn survivors of the 2015 Formosa Fun Coast Water Park explosion. Three sets of predictors were examined: (a) burn-related variables; (b) empirically-derived risk factors from the meta-analysis; and (c) theory-derived cognitive variables. Method: Participants were 116 burn survivors of the Formosa Fun Coast Water Park explosion. The mean age at the disaster was 22.3 ± 4.2 years; the average total body surface area burned (TBSA) was 49.5%. Results: Of our participants, 12.9 and 20.7% met DSM-5 probable PTSD and MDD two years after the Formosa Fun Coast Water Park explosion. No gender differences were observed. For the prediction of PTSD symptoms post-burn, theory-derived cognitive variables (adjusted R² = .562, 95% CI [.423,.638]) performed best and provided significantly better prediction than empirically-derived risk factors from the meta-analysis (adjusted R² = .337, 95% CI [.180,.412]) and burn-related variables (adjusted R² = .313, 95% CI [.156,.389]). In contrast, the three sets of variables examined provided similar predictions for depressive symptoms post-burn (adjusted R² = .267–.295). Random forest regression revealed that theory-derived cognitive variables, particularly negative appraisal of symptoms and maladaptive cognitive coping, were considered the most important predictors of PTSD symptoms post-burn. Conclusion: The prevalence of probable PTSD and MDD were relatively higher in burn survivors. Theory-derived cognitive variables substantially improve predictions for PTSD symptoms post-burn.